Washington verleidt Duitse bedrijven met goedkope energie en lage belastingen. Berlijn is gealarmeerd - en wil tegenmaatregelen nemen.
In de nasleep van de oorlog en de energiecrisis in Duitsland, intensifieert de VS hun lokroep voor Duitse bedrijven. Talrijke Amerikaanse staten bieden naast goedkope energie ook belastingvermindering en andere hulp aan. Dit geldt met name voor de zuidelijke staten.
"We hadden onlangs de laagste energiekosten in de VS in elf van de 14 kwartalen", zegt Kevin Stitt, gouverneur van Oklahoma, in een interview met Handelsblatt. De Georgia minister van Economie, Pat Wilson, heeft een soortgelijk argument: "onze energiekosten zijn laag en de netten zijn stabiel.“
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Of ook: de VS steekt eerst de boel in Europa in brand en haalt dan binnen wat kan bekoren.
Begin september lekte een document van RAND Corporation uit dat van januari dit jaar dateert. Het document is een synopsis van een veel gedetailleerdere analyse. Rand Corporation is een Amerikaanse denktank die strategische analyses uitschrijft voor onder meer de inlichtingendiensten, DNC, ... . RAND Corporation had na het uitlekken van het document aangegeven dat het vals is (wat had men anders verwacht?). Of het nu vals is of niet, wat erin staat sluit naadloos aan bij wat er is gebeurd, wat er momenteel aan het gebeuren is en wat er de komende maanden en jaren staat te gebeuren. Eigenlijk moet je er zelf maar eens doorlezen maar hier toch enkele uitschieters.
http://acloserlookonsyria.shoutwiki.com ... ng_the_U.S.
https://2ndsmartestguyintheworld.substa ... orporation
January 25, 2022
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The present state of the U.S. economy does not suggest that it can function without the financial and material support from external sources. The quantitive easing policy, which the Fed has resorted to regularly in recent years, as well as the uncontrolled issue of cash during the 2020 and 2021 Covid lockdowns, have led to a sharp increase in the external debt and an increase in the dollar supply.
Niet alleen de VS heeft de geldprinter volle toeren doen draaien met triljoenen aan QE & ZIR om corona door te komen maar ook Japan, Europa en Rusland deden dat.
The continuing deterioration of the economic situation is highly likely to lead to a loss in the position of the Democratic Party in Congress and the Senate in the forthcoming elections to be held in November 2022. The impeachment of the President cannot be ruled out under these circumstances, which must be avoided at all costs.
There is an urgent need for resources to flow into the national economy [...] The major obstacle to it is growing independence of Germany.
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An increase in the flow of resources from Europe to U.S. can be expected if Germany begins to experience a controlled economic crisis. The pace of the economic developments in the EU depends almost without alternative on the state of the German economy. It is Germany that bears the brunt of the expenditure directed towards the poorer EU members.
De Duitse industrie is feitelijk de motor van Europa. Zowel de Duitse als de andere Europese industrieën worden verpletterd door exploderende energieprijzen. Er zijn al tal van noodkreten geweest vanuit de industrie maar vanuit de politieke heerst stilte en inertie. 50% Van aluminiumsmederijen en kunstmeststofproducenten in Europa ligt intussen stil. De andere zware industrie is er niet beter aan toe. Het artikel in Handelblatt is slechts een teken aan de wand.
The current German economic model is based on two pillars. These are unlimited access to cheap Russian energy resources and to cheap French electric power, thanks to the operation of nuclear plants. The importance of the first factor is considerably higher. Halting Russian supplies can well create a systemic crisis that would be devastating for the German economy and, indirectly, for the entire European Union.
Goedkope grondstoffen uit Rusland in ruil voor luxeproducten uit de EU wordt ook wel eens Eurussia genoemd wat intussen, tot groot jolijt van sommigen, door de mangel is.
The French energy sector could also soon begin to experience heavy problems. The predictable stop of Russian-controlled nuclear supplies, combined with the unstable situation in the Sahel region, would make French energy sector critically dependent on Australian and Canadian fuel. In connection with the establishment of AUKUS, it creates new opportunities to exercise pressure. However this issue is beyond the scope of the present report.
"The predictable stop of Russian-controlled nuclear supplies" Aangezien deze grondstoffen nog steeds vanuit Rusland worden geleverd is de analist van RAND Corporation hier iets te voortvarend geweest in de voorspelling.
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Due to coalition constraints, the German leadership is not in full control of the situation in the country. Thanks to our precise actions, it has been possible to block the commissioning of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, despite the opposition of lobbyists from the steel and chemical industries. However, the dramatic deterioration of the living standards may encourage leadership to reconsider its policy and return to the idea of European sovereignty and strategic autonomy.
Groene zeloot Baerbock (Duits minister van buitenlandse zaken) had NS2 4 maanden eerder, in september 2021, getorpedeerd.
The only feasible way to guarantee Germany’s rejection of Russian energy supplies is to involve both sides in the military conflict in Ukraine. Our further actions in this country will inevitably lead to a military response from Russia. Russians will obviously not be able to leave unanswered the massive Ukrainian army pressure on the unrecognized Donbas republics. That would make possible to declare Russia an aggressor and apply to it the entire package of sanctions prepared beforehand.
Het artikel dateert van januari en de escalatie (de oorlog is al sinds 2014 aan de gang) gebeurde eind februari.
Putin may in turn decide to impose limited counter sanctions — primarily on Russian energy supplies to Europe. Thus, the damage to the EU countries will be quite comparable to the one to the Russians, and in some countries — primarily in Germany — it will be higher.
De door het westen uitgevaardigde sancties blijken vooral de EU zelf te treffen.
The prerequisite for Germany to fall into this trap is the leading role of green parties and ideology in Europe. The German Greens are a strongly dogmatic, if not zealous, movement, which makes it quite easy to make them ignore economic arguments. In this respect, the German Greens somewhat exceed their counterparts in the rest of Europe. Personal features and the lack of professionalism of their leaders — primarily Annalena Baerbock and Robert Habeck — permit to presume that it is next to impossible for them to admit their own mistakes in a timely manner.
Groene zeloot Baerbock heeft al aangegeven dat ze deze winter sowieso achter het Oekraïens avontuur blijft staan ongeacht de gevolgen voor Duitsland, het land waar ze nota bene minister van is.
Thus, it will be enough to quickly form the media image of Putin’s aggressive war to turn the Greens into ardent and hardline supporters of sanctions, a ‘party of war’. It will enable the sanctions regime to be introduced without any obstacles. The lack of professionalism of the current leaders will not allow a setback in the future, even when the negative impact of the chose policy becomes obvious enough. The partners in the German governing coalition will simply have to follow their allies — at least until the load of economic problems outweighs the fear of provoking a government crisis.
However, even when the SPD and the FDP are ready to go against the Greens, the possibility for the next government to return relations with Russia to normal soon enough will be noticeable limited. Germany’s involvement in large supplies of weapons and military equipment to the Ukrainian army will inevitably generate a strong mistrust in Russia, which will make the negotiations process quite lengthy.
Ondanks de enorme druk hield Scholz het voorlopig nog steeds bij eerder symbolische wapenleveringen.
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A reduction in Russian energy supplies — ideally, a complete halt of such supplies — would lead to disastrous outcomes for German industry. The need to divert significant amounts of Russian gas for winter heating of residential and public facilities will further exacerbate the shortages. Lockdowns in industrial enterprises will cause shortages of components and spare parts for manufacturing, a breakdown of logistics chains, and, eventually, a domino effect. A complete standstill at the largest chemical, metallurgical, and machine-building, plants is likely, while they have virtually no spare capacity to reduce energy consumption. It could lead to the shutting down of continuous-cycle enterprises, which could mean their destruction.
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Another inevitable consequence of a prolonged economic recession will be a sharp drop in living standards and rising unemployment (up to 200,000-400,000 in Germany alone), which will entail the exodus of skilled labour and well-educated young people. There are literally no other destinations for such immigration other than the United States today. A somewhat smaller, but also quite significant flow of migrants can be expected from other EU countries.
Oftewel, de VS zal de braindrain vanuit Europa met open armen ontvangen. Datzelfde VS dat vuur is gaan stoken in Europa. Een double whammy dus.
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